POMOR 2013: For the cameras only

The annual POMOR exercises in which the navies of Norway and Russia participate are timed to coincide with 9th May celebrations in Russia and the allied victory over German forces in Europe more generally. The 2013 exercises commence this week. It is not the only military exercise to include Russian forces. The bi-annual Northern Eagle exercises which include Norwegian, Russian as well as US naval forces are also notable in this regard. It is mistakenly believed that these exercises represent a profound sense of military cooperation between states in the High North. This is quite simply not the case.

The exercises constitute mere exercises in gesture politics which convince few beyond academia and the general public. The POMOR exercises are simply an expanded PR stunt on part of the two sides to mark the defeat of Nazi regime in 1945. From leaked diplomatic cables it is clear that Norwegian officials would like to conduct goodwill military exercises more often in an attempt to broaden cooperation with the Russian Federation. However, these are often turned down by their Russian counterparts. In one such cable Deputy Director for Security Policy Jan Olsen at the Norwegian Ministry of Defence stated that

the GoN puts forward a work plan each year with Russia for military cooperation, and maybe half of what is proposed is actually accomplished. [1]

Rather than being genuine showcases of military cooperation,  special events marking the end of WWII have often revealed deeper underlying tensions between northern states. It is worth recalling the September 2010 incident which followed celebrations in Murmansk commemorating the wartime alliance between the US and the Soviet Union against Nazi Germany. On this occasion, the frigate USS Taylor was pursued closely in the Barents Sea by a Russian TU-95 bomber. The plane made a pass at a height of only 100 feet above the frigate with its bomb bay doors open. The following day, two Ka-27 anti-submarine helicopters buzzed the USS Taylor whilst it was still in the Russian part of the Barents Sea, coming as close as 30 yards to the vessel. This highly unusual and apparently aggressive manoeuvre was discussed by U.S Admiral Roughead and his Russian counterpart, Admiral Vysotsky. In April of last year, shortly before the start of the POMOR 2012 drills, a MiG-31 was involved in a near-miss with a Norwegian Orion aircraft after the Russian interceptor had come 'uncomfortably close' to the slow moving surveillance plane. Paradoxically, it seems such commemorative events are often useful opportunities for the Russian Federation to demonstrate its hostility towards its neighbours. 

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[1] U.S. Embassy in Oslo, ‘EUR/RPM Director discusses NATO, Arctic and Afghanistan with Norwegian officials’, 26 January 2010 (Oslo 000045).

Secretary General Rasmussen's Visit to Norway and NATO's role in the Arctic

NATO Secretary General Anders Fogh Rasmussen is due to arrive in Northern Norway today along with other high ranking NATO officials such NATO Deputy Secretary General Alexander Vershbow. In connection with the visit there will be a debate at the University of Tromsø on NATO's role in the future hosted by the Norwegian Foreign Minister, Espen Barth Eide; a discussion which will presumably incorporate the question of its role in High North. Rasmussen will also inspect the Norwegian Joint Headquarters which are located about a kilometer inside a mountain complex at Reitan near Bodø. He will also receive a demonstration of the reaction times of Norwegian F-16s to airborne threats.

The visit could be interpreted as positive sign for Norway that its wishes for greater NATO attention towards the High North to counterbalance rising Russian power in the region are being listened to and that the alliance is become increasing aware of potential threats in their near abroad.. The Secretary General's tour of the High North comes after recent criticism of the combat readiness of Norwegian forces, particularly in the event of high-intensity conflicts, by former head of the Norwegian Defence Research Institute (FFI) Nils Holme. He characterised Norway's Armed Forces in the following way:

1. Its air force has only 15 F-16s (of a total inventory of 50) available for missions at any given time.
2. Its navy lacks the requisite manpower to give it vessels a full complement as well as the necessary maintenance crews.
3. Its army  is only ready for action during certain times of the year and lacks the transport capacity to move to the most units to most vulnerable territories which are the coasts of Nord Troms and Finnmark. 
4. Its Army reserve lacks funds to equip its soldiers properly or to train officers to lead them. 

Although it is difficult to gauge precisely the combat readiness of a military power without the necessary security clearance, such criticism will likely be examined closely owing to the impeccable credentials of the individual who has submitted them. If such assessments are indeed accurate, Norway may need its NATO allies in the High North more than ever.