Sweden looks to counter-balance Russian rearmament

Recent revelations by the Swedish Armed Forces Chief, General Sverker Göranson, that his country could only effectively resist an attack by the Russian Federation for a few days have caused considerable consternation. According to assessments, in such a scenario, Sweden would rapidly require the military assistance of the US and NATO. His comments came as a protest against recent cuts to the Swedish military which have been enacted in spite of Russia’s marked increase in arms spending. Echoing the sentiments expressed by General Göranson, Deputy Prime Minister Jan Björklund stated that Sweden ought to consider, among other purchases, the procurement of Patriot missile batteries. Demonstrating that it was not only current and former military officers like Björklund who were of such an option, Foreign Minister Carl Bildt also chimed in with similar comments. He made it clear that Russian rearmament was 'worrying' and, although the likelihood of aggression was low, 'in an up-heated mode, Sweden, and Swedish territory could be affected'. The Russian Federation is indeed rearming. Defence spending in 2013 alone is set to increase by more than 25%. Sweden's defence spending per capita is only half of the Norwegian level and is clearly inadequate to deal with the potential threat posed by the Russian Federation.

These statements came only shortly after provocative comments made by Russian Defence Minister, Sergei Shoigu. In a speech to the Russian Academy for Military Sciences, Shoigu was blunt in describing the military threats facing Russia. He stated that its armed forces needed to be ready for 'large-scale conflict'. Particularly striking were his comments that 'the use of power continues to play an important role in the resolution of economic and political contradictions between countries'. Shoigu was perhaps referring to the use of force by his own country. Göranson used the example of the Georgian War to demonstrate that the use of armed violence can still result in territorial changes in Europe. The South Ossetian Conflict convinced the Nordic states that Russia's threshold for violence was lower than previously thought. The link between the Nordic States and the Five Day War in the Caucasus has not only been made by Scandinavian leaders, but is also one put forward by the Russians themselves. In June 2012, Russian General Chief of Staff Nikolai Makarov effectively threatened Finland. He noted its increasing cooperation with NATO and stated that, in light of the military manoeuvres in Eastern Finland at the time, the situation was comparable that which existed before the outbreak of hostilities in Georgia in 2008. There is now a strong and growing desire among many in the political and military establishment in Sweden to join NATO. Russian leaders often balk at the prospect of NATO expansion, but by wielding threats of armed force, they seem to do everything in their power to bring it about.

MiG-31 re-deployment to the Arctic undone

Still fresh in his new role as Defence Minister of the Russian Federation, Sergei Shoygu has recently reversed some decisions made by his apparently wilfully incomptent predecesor, Anatoly Serdyukov. One such reversal is the revocation of the plan, announced in September 2012, to redeploy MiG-31 interceptors to Novaya Zemlya. According to the military, neither the aircraft nor the airbase of Rogachevo on the remote Arcitc islands are anywhere near ready to accommodate such a deployment.

Some commentators might be led to think that, owing to the fact that the fiercest rhetoric on the Arctic comes from the Generals and Admirals of the RF, that they would be the most willing to project Russia's military capabilities in the region. However, according to Russian military sources, it appears that the initial MiG-31 decision was entirely political and had not been agreed to by the Air Force High Command. It seems that the Hawks are in the Kremlin as much as in the Arbat. It also adds further doubt to the official reason for the re-deployment of the MiG-31 which was given as missile defence That itself was likely a figleaf for the real purpose of power projection in the Arctic Ocean to support the wider political and strategic objectives of the RF.