Russia flexing military muscle along arc from Norway to Poland

Last week saw exercises carried out by elements of the Russian 200th Motorised Rifle Battalion near Pechenga, the site of a base which is located only 10 kilometres from the Norwegian border.[1] When the Zapad-13 exercises conclude next month, Russia's Armed Forces will have practised against every one of its potential neighbouring adversaries between the Barents Sea and the Ukraine. It would be helpful to briefly take stock of each of these. Beyond the recent exercises aimed at Norwegian positions, in March of this year, Russian manoeuvres near Lake Ladoga targeted Finnish territory. This was followed up in April with surprise exercises simulating air strikes against Sweden. The latter,it turned out, was completely defenceless, as it had been decided not to put any Gipen fighters on standby for quick reaction alert (QRA). Finally, the larger joint Russian-Belarussian Zapad-13 drills will take place near Poland and the Baltic states this September. Previous Zapad exercises have focused on precisely this region as an adversarial area. Latvia’s Defence Minister, Artis Pabriks, stated that he did not expect this year's drill to deviate from this established pattern. He also expressed concern over the changing military balance in the region in Russia's favour. The 2009 Zapad exercises became notorious for simulating tactical nuclear strikes against Poland, a non-nuclear power, which suggested a widened scope for the use of such weapons. On the NATO side, military drills, named Steadfast Jazz, will take place this November in Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania and Poland. The Russian Deputy Defence Minister, Anatoly Antonov, has criticised the upcoming NATO exercise, Steadfast Jazz, which, in his words:

''envisages the application of Article 5 of the Washington Treaty triggering a response to an aggression against Poland. These drills are in the spirit of the Cold War,''

However, the reality is that the NATO exercise comes as a belated response to many years of Russian exercises, such as Zapad 09, targeting NATO's Eastern Flank.Steadfast Jazz is likely a response to the requests from the Baltic states for better defense planning in case of a Russian attack. It should be noted that, in the past, it has been difficult to reach agreement among all NATOs members in accepting such plans. From leaked diplomatic cables, its has become known that Eagle Guardian, a regional defence scheme from 2010, overcame strong resistance, particularly from Germany, and its adoption was contingent on its utmost secrecy. Fulfilling the basic defensive requirements set out by Baltic States and Poland seemed to threaten the very unity of the alliance.

It is important to note that the High North, or what used to be called the Northern Flank, is only in part a longer and increasingly militarised frontier which stretches through the Nordic states and abuts the Baltic region and Poland. This can be seen in the increasing intensity of Russian military exercises along NATO's borders which often encompass larger regions. Some parts of this year's Zapad 2013, for instance, will play out in the Barents Sea and the exercise therefore carries implications beyond Poland and the Baltic states. More generally, it would seem to this blogger that the dividing line between East and West is becoming more distinct and is assuming an increasingly military character. Unfortunately, this is a distinctly uneven process, whereby one side is, for the most part, cutting back on its defence expenditures, while the other is steadily increasing its readiness.

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[1] In terms of supporting elements, particularly air defense and artillery units, the 200th Motorised Rifle Battlion is actually closer to a division in size. It is currently being re-equipped as one of two dedicated Arctic battalions.