Russia flexing military muscle along arc from Norway to Poland

Last week saw exercises carried out by elements of the Russian 200th Motorised Rifle Battalion near Pechenga, the site of a base which is located only 10 kilometres from the Norwegian border.[1] When the Zapad-13 exercises conclude next month, Russia's Armed Forces will have practised against every one of its potential neighbouring adversaries between the Barents Sea and the Ukraine. It would be helpful to briefly take stock of each of these. Beyond the recent exercises aimed at Norwegian positions, in March of this year, Russian manoeuvres near Lake Ladoga targeted Finnish territory. This was followed up in April with surprise exercises simulating air strikes against Sweden. The latter,it turned out, was completely defenceless, as it had been decided not to put any Gipen fighters on standby for quick reaction alert (QRA). Finally, the larger joint Russian-Belarussian Zapad-13 drills will take place near Poland and the Baltic states this September. Previous Zapad exercises have focused on precisely this region as an adversarial area. Latvia’s Defence Minister, Artis Pabriks, stated that he did not expect this year's drill to deviate from this established pattern. He also expressed concern over the changing military balance in the region in Russia's favour. The 2009 Zapad exercises became notorious for simulating tactical nuclear strikes against Poland, a non-nuclear power, which suggested a widened scope for the use of such weapons. On the NATO side, military drills, named Steadfast Jazz, will take place this November in Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania and Poland. The Russian Deputy Defence Minister, Anatoly Antonov, has criticised the upcoming NATO exercise, Steadfast Jazz, which, in his words:

''envisages the application of Article 5 of the Washington Treaty triggering a response to an aggression against Poland. These drills are in the spirit of the Cold War,''

However, the reality is that the NATO exercise comes as a belated response to many years of Russian exercises, such as Zapad 09, targeting NATO's Eastern Flank.Steadfast Jazz is likely a response to the requests from the Baltic states for better defense planning in case of a Russian attack. It should be noted that, in the past, it has been difficult to reach agreement among all NATOs members in accepting such plans. From leaked diplomatic cables, its has become known that Eagle Guardian, a regional defence scheme from 2010, overcame strong resistance, particularly from Germany, and its adoption was contingent on its utmost secrecy. Fulfilling the basic defensive requirements set out by Baltic States and Poland seemed to threaten the very unity of the alliance.

It is important to note that the High North, or what used to be called the Northern Flank, is only in part a longer and increasingly militarised frontier which stretches through the Nordic states and abuts the Baltic region and Poland. This can be seen in the increasing intensity of Russian military exercises along NATO's borders which often encompass larger regions. Some parts of this year's Zapad 2013, for instance, will play out in the Barents Sea and the exercise therefore carries implications beyond Poland and the Baltic states. More generally, it would seem to this blogger that the dividing line between East and West is becoming more distinct and is assuming an increasingly military character. Unfortunately, this is a distinctly uneven process, whereby one side is, for the most part, cutting back on its defence expenditures, while the other is steadily increasing its readiness.

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[1] In terms of supporting elements, particularly air defense and artillery units, the 200th Motorised Rifle Battlion is actually closer to a division in size. It is currently being re-equipped as one of two dedicated Arctic battalions.

My (belated) response to an unbalanced article critical of NATO in the Arctic

In a series of interviews with Voice of Russia, Anti-NATO activist Agneta Nordberg describes the relatively minor steps being considered by Sweden in the Arctic without any reference to the far more significant measures taken by the Russian Federation which has caused the Sweden response. The result is an extremely unbalanced perspective which requires a rebuttal:

'It is the behavior of the Russian Federation which is escalatory. Russia is currently preparing to field its Arctic Group of Forces near the Norwegian and Swedish borders consisting of at least one combined arms brigade under Northern Fleet command. Russian military expenditure will increase by over 25% this year alone. Its defence spending accounts for more than 3.9% of GDP. The Swedish equivalent is only a humble 1.35%. 'Demonizing Russia'? Russia needs no assistance on that front. After all, it was Gen Makarov who, in July 2012, made the link between the Georgian Conflict and the Arctic by effectively threatening Finland; likening manoevures in Finland to the situation in the Caucasus before 8 August 2008. Russian threats towards its neigbours is the reason why the latter flee to NATO for safety. Stop NATO in the Arctic? On the contrary; NATO is our protection. NATO keeps us safe and warm. It is interesting to note that, because of their disdain for the US and NATO, the Anti-NATO Left and the Kremlin regime are fellow travelers on this is issue. Hatred makes strange bedfellows indeed'.

Sweden looks to counter-balance Russian rearmament

Recent revelations by the Swedish Armed Forces Chief, General Sverker Göranson, that his country could only effectively resist an attack by the Russian Federation for a few days have caused considerable consternation. According to assessments, in such a scenario, Sweden would rapidly require the military assistance of the US and NATO. His comments came as a protest against recent cuts to the Swedish military which have been enacted in spite of Russia’s marked increase in arms spending. Echoing the sentiments expressed by General Göranson, Deputy Prime Minister Jan Björklund stated that Sweden ought to consider, among other purchases, the procurement of Patriot missile batteries. Demonstrating that it was not only current and former military officers like Björklund who were of such an option, Foreign Minister Carl Bildt also chimed in with similar comments. He made it clear that Russian rearmament was 'worrying' and, although the likelihood of aggression was low, 'in an up-heated mode, Sweden, and Swedish territory could be affected'. The Russian Federation is indeed rearming. Defence spending in 2013 alone is set to increase by more than 25%. Sweden's defence spending per capita is only half of the Norwegian level and is clearly inadequate to deal with the potential threat posed by the Russian Federation.

These statements came only shortly after provocative comments made by Russian Defence Minister, Sergei Shoigu. In a speech to the Russian Academy for Military Sciences, Shoigu was blunt in describing the military threats facing Russia. He stated that its armed forces needed to be ready for 'large-scale conflict'. Particularly striking were his comments that 'the use of power continues to play an important role in the resolution of economic and political contradictions between countries'. Shoigu was perhaps referring to the use of force by his own country. Göranson used the example of the Georgian War to demonstrate that the use of armed violence can still result in territorial changes in Europe. The South Ossetian Conflict convinced the Nordic states that Russia's threshold for violence was lower than previously thought. The link between the Nordic States and the Five Day War in the Caucasus has not only been made by Scandinavian leaders, but is also one put forward by the Russians themselves. In June 2012, Russian General Chief of Staff Nikolai Makarov effectively threatened Finland. He noted its increasing cooperation with NATO and stated that, in light of the military manoeuvres in Eastern Finland at the time, the situation was comparable that which existed before the outbreak of hostilities in Georgia in 2008. There is now a strong and growing desire among many in the political and military establishment in Sweden to join NATO. Russian leaders often balk at the prospect of NATO expansion, but by wielding threats of armed force, they seem to do everything in their power to bring it about.