Russian Ladoga 2013 Exercises: Target Finland

Russian military exercises in the Republic of Karelia near the Finnish border are due to start next week. Since the Georgia conflict in 2008, relations between Finland and Russia have deteriorated, particularly over the issue of possible Finnish membership of NATO. In the immediate aftermath of the South Ossetian War, Finnish defence officials noted Russia's use of camouflage patterns which were strikingly similar to those fielded by Finnish forces. As a result, military spokesman, Captain Karhuvaara stated that 'If Russian Minstry of the Interior Troops were to invade Finland, we would encounter serious trouble'. More generally, the recognition that Russia's threshold for using military violence was lower than anticipated has led to greater defence cooperation with other western states. It will be instructive to see how this year's drills compare with the Zapad and Ladoga 2009 exercises which were largest ever Russian exercises since the defeat of the Soviet Union in the Cold War. The latter were formally separate but may be considered as part of an extended series of exercises which took place in August and September 2009. Zapad 2009 featured a simulated tactical nuclear strike against Poland and thereby heralded the emergence of a military doctrine which legitimises the introduction of tactical nuclear weapons in a regional conflict against a non-nuclear power. This year, Finland may receive more of Russia's attention. According to the Russian Federation, NATO expansion to the Russo-Finnish frontier would by itself constitute a military threat. This point was made most bluntly by General Makarov last year when he compared Finnish behaviour to the situation in the Caucasus before 8 August 2008; that is to say, casus belli. This point is made explicit in article 17 of the 2009 Russian National Security Strategy which reads: 'The defining factor in relations with the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation will remain the unacceptability for Russia of plans to bring the Alliance’s military infrastructure forward to Russia’s borders'.[1] In accordance with Russia's military doctrine, this would necessarily lead to a military response. However, by wielding threats toward Finland, Russia may be encouraging the opposite outcome of that which it desires.

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[1] National Security Council, 'Strategiya natsional’noy bezopasnosti Rossiyskoy Federatsii do 2020 goda'

Rogozin threatens Norway and Poland

In a continuation of the war of words on Facebook and Twitter between the Russian Deputy Prime Minister, Dmitry Rogozin, and the Norwegian Foreign Minister, Espen Barth Eide, on 12 January 2013, the Russian appeared to threaten Norway and Poland stating:

'Norwegian and Polish politicians should not engage in rhetoric but seriously consider the consequences for their peoples of {the deployment} from 2018 of the US Missile Defence System’ which would lead to a ‘military-technical response’ from Russia.

However, it was Rogozin’s rhetoric that Eide was responding to. Referring to the recent commissioning of the first of the Borei class of SSBN with the Russian Navy Rogozin had stated, ‘Tremble, Bourgeois! You’re done for’.[1] Barth-Eide protested that ‘a language that remains of the Cold War is used too often'.

Such strong rhetoric on the part of the Russians is often dismissed as little more than pandering to a Russian domestic audience. However, it is known that this rhetoric is taken seriously in the wider Norwegian analysis. According to a leaked cable from the U.S. embassy in Oslo from 2010, one Norwegian official from the Ministry of Defence, ‘described the growing "convergence of Russian rhetoric and military capability," which could create a more "interesting" situation with Russia as it furthers its ambitions in the Arctic High North'.[2] It is this combination of military capacity and unfriendly intentions which the Norwegians see as unsettling and is why Russia’s use of such rhetoric contributes to raising tensions in the Arctic.

[1]This is a translation of the original Russian, ‘Drozhitye, boorzhooi! Kirdik vam’.

[2] U.S. Embassy in Oslo,’ EUR/RPM DIRECTOR DISCUSSES NATO, ARCTIC, AND...’ 26 January 2010, (Oslo 000045).